China's Overseas Mine Spending Hits Record High as State Control Tightens

Chinese companies secured $8.8 billion in overseas mineral acquisitions during the first three quarters of 2026, the highest annual total recorded since at least 2018. The Rhodium Group reported that these purchases focus heavily on metals where domestic supply is thin, such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt. Gold acquisitions have also risen in recent years.

This surge reflects a shift from fragmented corporate deals to a unified government strategy. In April, Beijing created a dedicated bureau to oversee investments by central state-owned enterprises. By July, a specialized vehicle was established to advise firms on compliance and risk management. Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia, described the approach as a state-coordinated model designed to align larger investments with national goals.

The centralization aims to reduce disorderly competition among Chinese firms and strengthen their position against rivals like India and Saudi Arabia. Analysts warn, however, that longer approval processes may raise corruption risks and lower returns. Chinese firms have targeted regions like Tajikistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo for two decades, often choosing areas where Western miners have been cautious.

Eurasia predicts outbound investment in upstream critical minerals will roughly double from the 2021-2025 period. Wang noted that Beijing treats a 70% import dependence as a critical security threshold. This standard places copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, bauxite, and iron ore under strict national security constraints. Even gold, with reliance near the safer 50% mark, faces continued efforts to secure high-grade resources.

Host nations are increasingly demanding local processing of raw materials, challenging China's traditional dominance in refining. The International Energy Agency states that China produces approximately 92% of the world's refined rare earths. This control allows Beijing to influence global prices by adjusting supply levels.

Japan has felt the impact of these adjustments. Customs data show that Chinese exports of yttrium oxide to Japan fell to 4,000 kilograms in September, down from 51,000 kilograms a year earlier. Outside China, the price of yttrium oxide surged to about $1,150 per kilogram, a 179-fold increase from levels two years prior. Domestic prices in China remain near $9 per kilogram.

In response, Chinese firms are moving beyond outright acquisitions. They are increasingly building greenfield projects and processing facilities near mining sites. Armand Meyer, a senior research analyst at Rhodium, noted this trend is most visible in Indonesia, where firms constructed smelting and refining capacity to comply with local nickel ore export bans.