Economic Anxiety Narrows Democratic Lead in National Midterm Poll

The gap between the two major parties in the national race for Congress has narrowed to 11 percentage points, according to data released on Monday.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed over five days, found that 47% of registered voters preferred the Democratic Party for Congress, while 36% preferred the Republican Party. Eleven percent of respondents said they did not know which party they would support if the election were held today. This 11-point advantage for Democrats is one percentage point smaller than the result from a similar poll that closed on October 19. When undecided voters who expressed a lean were included, the margin for Democrats decreased to 9 points, with 50% supporting the party over 41% for Republicans.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating rose to 32% in the same survey, marking a one-point increase from the previous week’s low. Republicans aim to keep their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Losing control of either chamber would make it harder for the president to advance his legislative goals during the final two years of his second term.

Voters in the poll cited inflation as a primary driver of their preferences. Since February, when military strikes on Iran began and gasoline prices rose, 73% of respondents said their cost of living was moving in the wrong direction. Before the conflict, national surveys showed voters preferring Republicans on economic management. In the current data, 37% said Democrats have a better approach to the economy, compared with 33% who chose Republicans.

Analysts generally view the Democratic path to the House as more manageable than their bid for the Senate. The latter requires winning more seats due to structural advantages in district lines. Among voters who identified as likely to cast ballots, the preference for Democrats stood at 53% to 44%.

Enthusiasm for the election also differed by party. Forty-six percent of Democratic respondents described themselves as very enthusiastic about voting, while 30% of Republican respondents said the same. The online poll surveyed 1,679 U.S. adults, including 1,280 registered voters, with a margin of error of three percentage points for the registered voter subset.