Three Seats and One Ex-PM Decide Israel's Government

Israel faces a tight election race where three parliamentary seats and one former prime minister may determine which bloc forms the next government. With less than a day remaining before voting begins, political figures are calculating whether a minority coalition can secure the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority.

The primary variable is Agudat Yisrael, a three-member haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf. Assessments within the political establishment indicate the group could support an opposition-led government in exchange for budgetary agreements. Such a deal would not automatically eliminate the need for Arab party support, but it would shift the coalition math. In August, Maariv reported that Agudat Yisrael was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot amid internal friction over the haredi draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Goldknopf faces a structural hurdle. His electorate is largely identified with the Right. Political analysts warn that any visible alliance with change bloc parties could drive supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. The uncertainty is compounded by a letter from Rabbi Dov Lino expressing reservations about the bloc's commitment to Netanyahu, signaling a lack of confidence in the current government.

If neither major bloc reaches the necessary threshold, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett emerges as a potential decider. One scenario under discussion involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government to bridge the seat gap. This is considered a remote possibility, but some in political circles argue Bennett is the only change bloc leader with the right-wing background to make such a move. His current party structure, however, complicates this shift.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a candidate for a cross-bloc deal, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. Current assessments, however, view a move by Liberman as unlikely due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

These scenarios remain theoretical assessments rather than agreed-upon deals. The central question for upcoming negotiations is which politician is willing to shift their political base to secure a governing majority.