College Basketball: Model Picks Three Heavy Favorites

The 2026-27 college basketball season began this week, and Wednesday brings a slate of games featuring three major programs playing against teams from smaller conferences. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, recommends betting on all three heavy favorites to cover the point spread.

The model has started the new season with an 11-1 record on top-rated over/under picks since 2025 and a 28-22 record on top-rated side picks during that same period. Its specific selections for Wednesday include Butler as a 27.5-point favorite against Fairleigh Dickinson, Auburn as a 29.5-point favorite against SE Louisiana, and Saint Mary's as a 13.5-point favorite against North Dakota State. A parlay combining these three outcomes would pay out at +601 odds.

Butler opened the season with a 96-60 victory over Lafayette on Monday, limiting the opponent to 37% field goal shooting and 17% from three-point range. All five starters for the Bulldogs scored in double figures in that game. Their next opponent, Fairleigh Dickinson, finished 11-21 last season and lost 120-45 to Illinois in its opener this year. The Knights went 2-8 against the spread in non-conference games last season, and the model projects Butler to cover in 63% of simulations.

Auburn enters the game with a 67-game non-conference home winning streak, the longest active streak in the nation. The Tigers have a perfect 5-0 record against SE Louisiana and return second-leading scorer Tahaad Pettiford. SE Louisiana finished 9-22 last season and has lost 35 consecutive games against SEC opponents. The model sees Auburn covering the 29.5-point spread in 56% of its simulations.

Saint Mary's is under new head coach Mickey McConnell, a former associate head coach and player under the departed Randy Bennett. The Gaels started the season with a 90-85 win over Illinois State on Monday. Their opponent, North Dakota State, won the Summit Conference title last year but lost all five of its leading scorers from that roster. The model projects Saint Mary's to cover the spread in 65% of simulations.