Lula wins Brazil vote, so embassy stays in Tel Aviv

Luiz Inácio 'Lula' da Silva secured 51.79% of valid votes in the Brazilian presidential runoff, defeating center-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21%. The result prevents a planned diplomatic shift that would have moved Brazil's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Bolsonaro, a member of the Liberal Party, had campaigned on a platform of deepening ties with Israel, while Lula, the leader of the Workers Party, has maintained a critical stance toward Israel's military operations in Gaza.

The path to this election result began with a series of diplomatic tensions during Lula's first term in office. In January 2024, the Brazilian government endorsed South Africa's decision to bring a genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice. The following month, Lula drew international attention by comparing the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to the Holocaust, a remark that triggered a diplomatic crisis. Brazil's Jewish umbrella organization, CONIB, condemned the comparison as a distortion that offended Holocaust victims, and the Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also issued criticism of the statement.

Bolsonaro capitalized on these tensions during his campaign. Speaking to Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires on June 28, 2026, he outlined his foreign policy goals for the next administration. He stated that in 2027, Brazil would not only appoint an ambassador to Israel but also relocate its embassy to Jerusalem. During the same event, Bolsonaro praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as among the brightest in the country's medicine, industry, science, culture, and business sectors.

The election followed a first round on October 4, in which Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula. The next day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message on the social platform X, congratulating Bolsonaro and expressing hope for restoring friendship between the two nations. Netanyahu wrote, "I look forward to restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil. Best wishes for your great victory, my friend."

Bolsonaro stated that he did not accept the election results, although it is unclear how he would formally challenge them. Lula's victory interrupts a broader regional trend that has seen several Latin American nations strengthen their diplomatic relationships with Israel since 2023. This shift has included actions by leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Chile, and Colombia, who have restored severed ties or moved embassies to Jerusalem in recent years.

With Lula back in the presidency, Brazil's diplomatic posture is expected to align more closely with his previous administrations. The president will now face the task of managing relations with Israel amid ongoing regional changes. The next step in the political process involves the formal inauguration of the new term, which will solidify Lula's mandate to continue his current foreign policy approach.