Trump's 2024 coalition cracks as midterm vote nears

Net approval among 18 to 34 year old voters has collapsed to negative 53, marking the steepest decline in a key demographic that helped President Donald Trump win the 2024 election.

A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey indicates the broad coalition that carried the president to the White House is now seriously weakened. Since the start of his second term, his net approval among Latino voters has dropped from negative 22 to negative 38. Among Black respondents, the number has moved from negative 55 to negative 67. Overall, his approval rating among all registered voters has fallen from negative 7 at the beginning of his term to negative 19 in the most recent data.

The erosion is visible even within the Republican base. Approval from self-identified Trump voters has slid from a net positive 85 in 2025 to a net positive 65. In the South, where support was previously stable, net approval has turned negative, shifting from positive 2 in 2025 to negative 20 now.

These numbers arrive just before the midterm elections next week. Although Trump is not on the ballot, his presence influences the race. Republicans in the survey still give the president an 82 percent approval rating, and 90 percent of those identifying with the MAGA movement approve of him. However, interest in the election is 10 points lower among Republicans than it is among Democrats. In close contests, the party with higher voter turnout typically holds the advantage.

The survey, conducted from October 14 to 18, polled 1,000 registered voters nationwide. It was co-led by Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Forty-four percent of respondents said their biggest worry if Republicans control Congress is allowing the president to operate beyond his constitutional power. By contrast, 28 percent cited passing policies of Democratic Socialists as their top concern if Democrats take control.

Trump’s economic approval has followed an unusual path. He left his first term with 48 percent approving of his economic performance, a high mark for a president whose final year was defined by the pandemic. There was no second-term honeymoon. His economic approval rating was immediately negative in the April 2025 survey, likely reflecting public discontent with the tariff regime and market turmoil. The rating remained negative for most of his first year.

The situation deteriorated with the launch of the Iran war. By April 2026, his net economic approval reached levels last seen under President Joe Biden during the pandemic aftermath. In the first quarter of this year, net economic approval dropped 10 points to negative 21. In the latest survey, it has plunged to negative 31. Economic disapproval has risen to 65 percent, the highest level for any president measured by CNBC back to the Obama administration. This figure is one point higher than Biden’s worst showing.

Disapproval of Trump’s handling of inflation has increased, and headlines dominated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers shooting Americans have eroded support for a major policy initiative. The survey captures growing frustration among the specific demographic groups that supported the president in unusual numbers in 2024, including Latinos, young people, and those with incomes between $50,000 and $75,000.

The most concerning metric for the president is the shift in economic outlook among Republicans, which fell 22 points. While still net positive, this is the lowest level of economic optimism for Republicans since the Biden era. Despite this pessimism, a 7-point preference for Democratic control of Congress exists, a 3-point gain from July. Republican preference for their own party controlling Congress rose from 85 percent to 87 percent over the same period.

Blue-collar workers illustrate how the president maintains his base despite economic concerns. Their net economic approval of the president has plunged 22 points to negative 15 since the start of his term. However, their overall presidential approval remains at positive 6, a drop of only four points. They still prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by 21 points, down from 33 points in July. The president has been touring red states in the days leading up to the election, a move that signals concern over base enthusiasm but also offers a chance to mobilize voters and limit Democratic gains.