42 million voters cast early ballots in 2026 midterms

The 2026 midterm election cycle has drawn unprecedented early participation across the United States. More than 42 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a figure that matches the turnout levels seen during the 2018 "blue wave." University of Florida Election Lab data indicates that current enthusiasm levels appear to favor the Democratic Party.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said the U.S. could be heading toward a record turnout. He noted that while 2018 held the highest midterm turnout since 1914, the current cycle is showing uneven patterns. McDonald attributed this disparity to a clear partisan divide in voter engagement.

"Registered Democrats, unaffiliated, those people who don’t have a party registration, are engaged at the moment. But registered Republicans are not as much," McDonald said. The data reflects this split, with Democrats accounting for 44% of early votes compared to approximately 31% for Republicans.

McDonald observed that early voting rates have risen among young voters and minority groups this cycle. He described the electorate as potentially the most diverse in U.S. midterm history, citing high engagement from African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans. He noted that engagement levels among white voters are lower by comparison.

The model has limitations because not all states require party registration or emphasize early voting. States like Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska typically see only about one-third of their votes cast before Election Day. McDonald said these areas will differ significantly from states with high mail-in or in-person early voting volumes.

While Democrats currently hold an early lead, McDonald said Republicans will likely close the gap on Election Day. Final results will not be announced until after polls close on Tuesday, November 3.