Survivor Pools: 56% Win Probability for Broncos Over Chiefs
A SportsLine model that has gone 58-51 since 2024 advises pool players to avoid the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
By Wyatt Cooper ·
Survivor pool participants face a difficult Week 8 slate where the Kansas City Chiefs are not the safest bet. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, advises against picking the 5-1 Chiefs. The model projects the Denver Broncos to win the matchup 56% of the time, making the favored Chiefs a risky entry for those trying to stay alive in their pools.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point and -125 money-line favorites to beat the 5-2 Broncos. The game is scheduled for Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. This prediction comes after the Chiefs suffered their worst loss of the season, falling 20-3 to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Despite that recent setback, the model is not confident in the Chiefs winning the upcoming contest.
Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City offense with 1,474 passing yards and nine touchdowns on 64.9% completion in six starts. Kenneth Walker III carries the rushing load with 701 yards and six touchdowns on 120 attempts. Walker was held to 36 yards on 14 carries in the loss to Seattle. The Chiefs defeated Denver 31-10 in the season opener on Sept. 14, but the model now favors the Broncos in this rematch.
The Denver Broncos are on a three-game winning streak as the defending AFC West champions. Bo Nix leads the Denver offense with 1,271 passing yards and seven touchdowns on 59.2% completion. Nix has been intercepted three times. The model's confidence in Denver is high enough to suggest other favorites on the card are safer options for pool players.
Week 8 features only 14 games due to four team byes. Many matchups present low point spreads that create uncertainty for pool entrants. The Cardinals play the Cowboys with the Cowboys favored by 6.5 points. The Bucs are 2-point favorites over the Falcons. The Bills and Steelers are favored by 3.5 points over the Ravens and Browns, respectively. The Jaguars are 7.5-point favorites over the Colts. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites over the Chargers.
The Titans are the biggest underdogs on the slate, facing the Bengals as 10.5-point underdogs. The Titans have been competitive recently, losing three games by one score and winning one by one score in their last five games. The SportsLine model is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It has a 58-51 record on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
The model is confidently backing a team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. This team is not the Chiefs. Pool players must select their picks before the games begin on Sunday.
Source: CBS Sports
