Trump Approval Hits 37 Percent

President Donald Trump's average approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, falling below the 40 percent level that has historically signaled poor results for the party in power during midterm elections. Recent polling data indicates a steep decline from the 52 percent average recorded early in 2025.

The drop in support comes as Republican leaders prepare for what most observers predict will be a loss of their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. While the Senate race remains too close to call, Vice President JD Vance holds the tie-breaking vote that could allow the GOP to retain control of that chamber if the margin is tight.

Trump spent the final weekend of the campaign visiting Iowa and Kansas to support Senate candidates. He chose these states despite winning them by double-digit margins in all three of his previous presidential campaigns. The schedule also included remote rallies in 19 other states, a plan that was briefly cancelled and then reinstated just before the weekend began.

Critics argue that the president's personalization of the election has made him a central target for voters. They point to unfulfilled campaign promises regarding inflation, gas prices, and foreign policy in Ukraine and the Middle East as key reasons for the dissatisfaction. Trump, who often refers to his supporters as his base, has framed the election as a referendum on his leadership rather than just a choice for congressional seats.

Democrats face their own internal challenges if they gain control of Congress. The party must manage a coalition that includes progressive candidates, some of whom are associated with the Democratic Socialists of America, alongside more moderate lawmakers. These divisions were a focus of a list of 11 questions published in October by political analyst Ruy Teixeira, who noted the need for the party to address the interests of working-class voters.

Confidence in the election process itself is under strain. Since the Help America Vote Act of 2002, states have replaced punch-card ballots with touch-screen technology and paper trails. Nonpartisan experts generally defend these systems as secure, but Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of polls and news reports without providing specific evidence of fraud.

The 2016 and 2020 cycles saw the president challenge election results, culminating in the January 6, 2021 protests. Although he accepted the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, he continues to characterize opposing media and polling data as fake. This history raises questions about how the administration and its supporters will respond to the results on Tuesday.