Israeli Vote Yields No Majority for Either Netanyahu or Eisenkot

Israel's election has left neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot with a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Opposition parties hold more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, but Eisenkot cannot reach 61 without Arab-led parties, which he ruled out during the campaign. Netanyahu's Likud won the most votes, yet his coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties also falls short of the 61 needed to govern.

In the coming days, the president will meet the leaders of every party elected to parliament. Each will recommend a leader for the first chance to build a coalition. The president is not bound to pick the largest party's leader and may choose whoever appears most able to assemble 61 lawmakers. That candidate gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If the effort fails, the president can turn to another candidate.

Eisenkot appears likely to collect more recommendations than Netanyahu. Arab-led parties represent 21% of the population, who generally refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Eisenkot has said their positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Some of those parties have refused to endorse eliminating Hamas or to condemn it as a terrorist organization. Netanyahu's traditional partners likewise lack the seats to return him to power.

A unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot is one option. Israeli and some U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors that outcome, though NPR has not independently confirmed the reports. Such a coalition would likely include parties from the center and right, and could ease work with the Trump administration on Gaza reconstruction and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the two would have to settle who serves as prime minister and whether the role rotates.

A second path is an Eisenkot government backed by Arab parties, which would command more than 67 seats. Eisenkot and his allies have rejected that arrangement. Arab lawmakers could also support a minority government from outside the coalition, which would still conflict with campaign promises.

A third possibility is another election. The president has urged leaders to avoid a new vote after a campaign that drew the highest turnout in decades. Arab turnout could drop if Arab voters conclude that predominantly Jewish opposition parties will keep their representatives out of government. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote may not return for another ballot.

Defections offer a fourth route. Netanyahu would need roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc; Eisenkot would need about 13 if he continues to exclude Arab parties.

Before a government exists, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could still act with Arab lawmakers' support. Eisenkot's bloc is weighing an effort to replace the Knesset speaker, who helps set the legislative agenda, and to establish a state commission of inquiry into the political and security failures that preceded the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023. His allies could also try to reverse laws advanced by Netanyahu's government that critics say weakened judicial independence.

Netanyahu said in his election-night speech that Israel still must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot, speaking the same night, told Netanyahu not to use "Israel's security for your political needs." Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, said Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew fighting. "Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war," Citrinowicz said. "When you have an emergency in Israel, the pressure on Eisenkot to enter some sort of unity government would obviously mount."