Netanyahu's Knesset win falls short as Arab parties gain leverage

Israel’s parliamentary race ended in a fragmented result that leaves the country without a clear path to a stable government. Final counts released by the Central Elections Committee show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This total is well below the 68 seats his coalition controlled at its peak in the previous legislature.

The opposition side is divided. Yashar, the party led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, won 48 seats. Arab-led parties captured the remaining 19 seats. The results must be certified and submitted to the president by Wednesday, after which the president will task a candidate with forming a government. If multiple attempts fail, new elections could occur early next year.

The outcome of the vote was shaped by high engagement and the lingering trauma of the October 7, 2023 attack. Voter turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest level since 1999. Campaigns focused heavily on the security failures surrounding the day 1,200 people were killed and 251 were abducted. Many voters prioritized the military response over the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Arab-led parties emerged as key players in the upcoming negotiations. They increased their total representation in the Knesset, a shift that makes them potential kingmakers. Eisenkot has indicated he could partner with them under specific conditions, such as recognition of Hamas as an extremist group. However, other likely partners have ruled out such a alliance.

Netanyahu has refused to form a government relying on Arab parties. His Likud party is amplifying allegations that the election was stolen and has asked the elections committee to investigate. Likud has not shared evidence supporting these claims. Netanyahu also cited a request for the Shin Bet intelligence service to investigate unspecified foreign interference. This letter does not mention Arab-led parties, but Netanyahu used it to argue against cooperation with them.

Qatar issued a statement denying it funded activities intended to influence the election outcome. Many Israelis view the Gulf state as a patron of Hamas, and allegations of its influence have roiled politics in previous cycles. The election was also marked by deep divisions over military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population. Nearly 1,000 soldiers and reservists have been killed in recent wars, a toll that has intensified debate over the exemptions.

Eisenkot, who lost his son in combat in Gaza, has vowed to end these exemptions if his side takes power. Netanyahu’s coalition has long relied on ultra-Orthodox parties that demand the exemptions remain. The final vote count is complete, but the process of building a majority coalition remains open.