Israel's new parliament leaves no clear path to power for Netanyahu or Eisenkot

Israel's recent election has left the country in a political standoff.

Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, holds a clear path to forming a new government. The final results show that opposition parties have won more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. However, Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, cannot reach the required majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. His allies rejected that alliance repeatedly during the campaign.

Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, yet his coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties still falls short of the 61 seats required in the 120-seat Knesset. In the coming days, Israel's president will consult with all party leaders. The president will select the candidate most likely to assemble a governing coalition, regardless of which party won the most votes. That candidate will have 28 days to secure the necessary support, with a possible 14-day extension.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the most recommendations from newly elected lawmakers. His bloc, however, lacks a majority without the Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population. Eisenkot has stated that these parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Netanyahu faces a similar hurdle, as his traditional partners do not have enough seats to return him to power.

A unity government between the two leaders is one possible outcome. Reports indicate that U.S. President Trump favors this arrangement, though NPR has not independently confirmed the claims. Such a government would likely include moderate parties and could facilitate regional priorities like Gaza reconstruction and normalization with Saudi Arabia. Eisenkot, however, has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu.

Another option is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. Together, they would command more than 67 seats. This remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly ruled it out. A third possibility is a repeat election, which the president has urged leaders to avoid after a vote that drew record turnout. Netanyahu may favor a new vote if Arab turnout declines or if liberal Israelis who traveled abroad to vote do not return.

A fourth possibility involves defections. Netanyahu would need roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc, while Eisenkot would need about 13 defectors to exclude the Arab parties. During the stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation. This includes efforts to replace the Knesset speaker and establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the October 7, 2023 attack. Opponents also hope to reverse legislation they say weakened democratic institutions.

A renewed war with Iran could disrupt these legislative moves. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use national security for political needs. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted that Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting to increase pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government.