Oren urges Israel to prepare for aid cut

Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren says the country must stop assuming it has a decade to transition away from American military aid. Speaking on 103FM, Oren responded to President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will terminate military assistance to Israel. Oren noted that Trump accelerated the timeline, moving the decision up by approximately two years from the expiration of the memorandum of understanding signed under the Obama administration. Trump stated the move was based on a recommendation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Oren attributes the decision partly to the current American political climate. He observed that military aid has become a central issue in Democratic election campaigns. Oren described Trump’s announcement as either a trial balloon or a bombshell. Regardless of the intent, Oren said he has long argued that Israel needs to prepare for the possibility that aid will end. He stressed that the schedule is set by Washington, not Jerusalem.

The former deputy minister warned that a change in Congressional control could accelerate the end of assistance. He noted that Democrats have previously voted to end military aid, which could eventually lead to the termination of intelligence cooperation. Oren argued that Israel’s strategic importance to the United States makes the move counterintuitive. He described Israel as the only ally willing to fight shoulder to shoulder with America and a country whose technology enhances US security capabilities. He questioned the logic of reducing the ability of a nation located in a sensitive region to help American interests.

Oren also addressed shifting political dynamics in the United States. He pointed out that the Muslim population in Michigan is larger than the Jewish population in that state. He noted that one-third of Jews in New York voted for Zohran Mamdani. Oren said the American Israel Public Affairs Committee is under intense scrutiny from politicians and is no longer the largest or wealthiest lobby in Washington. He expressed surprise at stopping aid during an active war, suggesting Trump might support Netanyahu in exchange for a pause in military operations before midterms.

Oren highlighted the diplomatic value of American support, specifically the ability to cast a veto at the United Nations Security Council. He described the US as a political and diplomatic shield against sanctions. He reiterated his long-standing call to transform military aid into a partnership. When asked about replacing American equipment with Chinese alternatives, Oren warned that this would cross a clear red line for Washington. He recalled meetings with multiple administrations that told Israel it could not have both American and Chinese systems. Oren said he initially opposed the memorandum of understanding because it limited Israel's purchasing options. He cited years of requests for B-1 or B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles that were denied, while sales to China were blocked.