Swing Voters: A year of shifting political loyalties

For voters who previously backed Joe Biden in 2020 and then switched to Donald Trump in 2024, the coming election presents a fresh set of decisions. A year of consistent monitoring by the Swing Voter Project has documented how these individuals are evaluating President Trump and the political issues that influence their choices.

The project operates through monthly online focus groups. Messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting manage these sessions. NPR participates as a partner in this ongoing effort to track political sentiment.

According to the data collected throughout 2026, these specific voters rapidly developed negative views of President Trump. They have drawn a direct connection between his policy decisions and their personal economic experiences.

The analysis also indicates that Democrats do not currently enjoy strong popularity among this group. However, there is a visible alignment between voters on the left and right who support economic populism.

Concerns regarding artificial intelligence and the expansion of data centers are also prominent. These topics appear consistently in the discussions held during the monitoring period.

The findings were detailed in a one-hour discussion titled 'Swing voters and the issues that matter.' Ben Swasey edited the special, while Lexie Schapitl served as the producer.

The insights provide a snapshot of how voters who have already changed their party alignment are thinking about the upcoming ballot. Their shifting perspectives offer a concrete look at the dynamics at play in swing states.