71% of Arizona Voters Prioritize Housing Costs Ahead of Midterms

The central conflict in Arizona’s upcoming midterm elections is not immigration or public safety, but the cost of a roof. Income growth has stalled relative to housing expenses over the last two years, creating a affordability gap that has overtaken other issues in the minds of registered voters.

A statewide survey conducted in August by the nonpartisan Citizens Clean Elections Commission found that 71% of Arizona registered voters care about candidates’ views on housing costs. This figure surpassed every other policy area except for road, bridge, and utility infrastructure. In a separate poll by the Center for the Future of Arizona, just over half of residents, regardless of party affiliation, stated that high housing costs prevent them from improving their personal finances.

The financial pressure is evident in market data. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 7.24% just before Election Day. This rate is more than one percentage point higher than it was a year earlier. The spike has made homebuying more expensive, keeping many potential buyers in the rental market. That retained demand has pushed rental prices higher, creating a feedback loop that affects both renters and prospective owners.

Alison Cook-Davis, research director at Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy, noted that housing connects the economy directly to daily life. She observed that statewide surveys consistently show housing costs are top of mind for voters. Candidates have responded by making specific promises to address the shortage and high prices.

Republican candidates have focused on supply-side solutions and border policy. Rep. Eli Crane, R-Oro Valley, toured home manufacturers in Phoenix and Chandler with Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Scott Turner a week before the election. Crane vowed to expand housing options for Arizonans. Turner posted on X that the administration is supporting innovators to increase supply. In Tucson, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Tucson, toured a homeless shelter with Turner, noting that higher costs make it difficult for families to enter the market.

Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, expanded the Arizona is Home downpayment assistance program last year. Her challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, has promised to reduce red tape to speed up permits for new construction. Biggs also pushed congressional legislation meant to deter people in the country illegally from owning homes, with the stated goal of reducing demand. He told listeners on the Mike Broomhead Show on KTAR that making it possible to get into a home is essential for the American dream.

Jay Feely, the GOP nominee to succeed Rep. David Schweikert, also links the housing shortage to border security. In a September interview, he echoed a claim that 30% of the rise in home prices during the Biden administration stemmed from illegal immigration. He posted on X that cutting regulations and permit barriers would increase supply and lower rents. His Democratic rival, Amish Shah, blamed Trump administration policies for increasing rents and high mortgages, telling MSNow that people have noticed and are not happy.

Zachary Milne, director of policy and research at the Common Sense Institute, said household sizes are growing faster than housing stock. He noted that people are finding it hard to move out of parents’ homes or start families, a trend he believes is more pronounced in Arizona. Lisa Paffrath, president of the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors, confirmed that things have not gotten better since 2024, citing persistent issues with workforce housing across the state.