North Carolina early voting surges as Democrats build 12-point lead

More than 2.8 million North Carolinians cast ballots through Sunday, a figure that represents a 31% increase over the total recorded at this stage in the 2022 midterm cycle. The State Board of Elections data indicates that Democrats have led the surge in early participation, with their vote count up 31.7% from the previous election. In contrast, Republican early ballots rose by 9.4%, while unaffiliated voters saw a 52.3% increase in participation.

Demographic breakdowns show distinct patterns in voter behavior. Black voters submitted 48.4% more mail-in and in-person early ballots than they did in 2022. White voters cast 20% more ballots than in the prior cycle. Turnout increased in 97 of the state’s 100 counties. Only Alexander, Columbus, and Alleghany counties saw declines, with drops of 14%, 4.6%, and 1.5% respectively.

Ten counties recorded growth rates exceeding 40%, with Hyde County leading at 69.3%. Cabarrus, Hertford, Currituck, Mecklenburg, Duplin, Franklin, Onslow, Avery, and Wake counties followed, with increases ranging from 41.4% to 48.6%. Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, and Wake counties are of particular interest because they host competitive state legislative races. Most of these seats are currently held by Republicans, including two House and two Senate districts in Wake County.

Analysts note that early voting numbers do not always predict final outcomes. North Carolina Democrats historically participate heavily in early voting, while Republicans often increase their turnout on Election Day. Unaffiliated voters currently constitute 35% of all ballots cast through Sunday, making them the largest voting bloc in the state. It remains difficult to determine how many of these early voters are habitual participants versus new or irregular voters motivated by this specific cycle.

The current numbers mirror the 2018 midterm election, when Democrats gained seats at the state and national levels. In 2018, Democrats held a 12.19-point advantage over Republicans in early voting. This year, their lead is slightly larger at 12.22 points. The primary difference between the two cycles is the level of unaffiliated turnout.

Compared to 2018, turnout is up 13.9 points among registered Democrats, 2.3 points among Republicans, and 6.9 points among unaffiliated voters. This shift suggests that Republicans may need to secure more votes on Election Day to close the gap than they did in the previous midterm cycle.