Study finds middle voters outnumber extremes

Political scientists argue that American polarization is overstated, with a large majority of voters holding views that cross traditional partisan lines. Recent research suggests the perceived gap between Democrats and Republicans is wider than the actual difference in public opinion.

Kristin Laurin, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia, points to anecdotal evidence and survey data to support this view. She cites the experience of two friends, Shanna Berry and Alma Ong, who avoided political discussion until asked about the January capture of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. Both women, in their early 50s, held divergent backgrounds but aligned on the outcome.

Berry, a Trump supporter and Air Force veteran, stated that the end of the Venezuelan regime was necessary, though she questioned the legalities and oil motives. Ong, a liberal and Buddhist, expressed surprise at their alignment. Laurin noted that this interaction reflects a common tendency to overestimate political differences due to a reluctance to discuss politics.

Laurin attributes this perception gap to political elites and social media platforms. She argues that politicians paint opponents as extreme to energize their base, while social media amplifies outrage to drive engagement. "Our perceived polarization far outstrips the actual polarization," Laurin said.

The non-partisan Pew Research Center classifies voters into nine distinct groups based on values and attitudes. Their data indicates that the political center is larger than the ideological extremes. The "Pragmatic and Polite Right" group, which values civility and leans conservative on economics, contains 56% Republicans and 37% Democrats.

Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, explained that looking beneath party labels reveals significant variation and overlap. "Actually, this kind of messy political middle is larger than those groups on the ideological right and the ideological left," Kiley said. Pew estimates this middle segment comprises about 60% of the electorate.

The groups at the far right, labeled the "No Apologies Right" and "Faith First Conservatives," account for just 21% of the population. Stan Fletcher, a Trump voter and restaurateur near the Chesapeake Bay, echoed this sentiment. He believes 95% of America falls within a moderate bell curve, noting that public discourse often focuses on the most vocal members of each party rather than the majority.