Trump Loses Two Key Allies as Left-Wing Parties Win in Serbia and Brazil

President Donald Trump lost two key international allies in October as voters in Serbia and Brazil elected left-wing leaders. In Serbia, the ruling party of Aleksandar Vucic, a close Trump ally, was defeated in a general election. In Brazil, incumbent President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva won re-election against Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a favorite of the Trump camp.

Vucic had ruled Serbia since 2017 and resigned from the presidency just before the vote to run for prime minister. He and Trump have described themselves as like-minded leaders. Trump's eldest son, Donald Jr., visited Belgrade twice in 2024. The US Conservative Political Action Conference, closely linked to the MAGA movement, had planned a meeting in Belgrade for November with Vucic as a keynote speaker, though it is unclear if the event will proceed.

Vucic shares Trump's warm stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Serbia did not join EU sanctions against Russia after the war in Ukraine began, and Belgrade continues to buy Russian raw materials. Trump recently admitted he gets along better with Putin than with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The end of the Vucic government removes one of Trump's few European allies with a similar view of Moscow.

In Brazil, the political shift is more direct. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering. After losing, he fled to Florida, where the US State Department granted him and his family entry visas despite the pending legal action. Bolsonaro refused to concede, claiming vote irregularities. Trump echoed this sentiment on Monday, stating, "It looked like another rigged election, frankly." He added, "Elections have to be indisputable, and it looked very bad to me."

Lawrence J. Haas, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, noted that Trump was a strong supporter of both Jair Bolsonaro and his son. "Trump wasn't happy about the defeat of either Bolsonaro," Haas said. "He doesn't feel warmly toward Lula. So relations will remain cool at best."

These foreign developments occur days before US voters head to the polls on November 3 for midterm elections. Haas said foreign policy outcomes will not drive the US vote, which will focus on domestic issues and feelings toward the party in power. However, he noted that Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president on the eve of a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946. Americans are currently concerned about affordability and strongly oppose the US-Iran war.

In Israel, the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the lead with more than 96% of votes counted, but has lost its majority. Coalition negotiations are expected to be difficult. Trump and Netanyahu have been close allies since launching a war against Iran in February of this year. The US remains Israel's most important partner, but the relationship's future is less clear if Netanyahu loses power.