Rubio Invites Putin to G20 as U.S. Lifts Oil Sanctions

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit scheduled for December in Miami. The invitation arrived days after Prime Minister Mark Carney returned from the European Parliament. On October 9, the U.S. government lifted sanctions on Russian oil and agreed to a direct diesel purchase deal.

Vincent Rigby, a former national security adviser to the Canadian prime minister, described the move as a serious shift rather than casual diplomacy. He stated the situation is not Trump playing footsie with Putin but something far more serious. Other analysts argue the changes extend beyond diplomatic gestures.

Under a policy Trump labeled an energy ceasefire, Ukraine stopped striking Russian refineries while Russia continued hitting Ukrainian power plants. Services from Starlink and Starshield slowed, leading to public disputes between the White House and Elon Musk. The U.S. also appeared to stop warning Ukraine of incoming ballistic missiles. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that obtaining Patriot missiles has become more difficult.

Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary said these actions suggest an attempt to make Ukraine lose the war. Washington also pressed European nations to release billions of euros in frozen Russian assets. Trump signed an executive order waiving further sanctions on Russia. Maria Popova of McGill University said the administration has moved from neutrality toward an open alliance with Putin, which could eventually mean the U.S. helps Russia's war effort.

Rigby warned that closer ties threaten Arctic sovereignty and could end NORAD in a worst-case scenario. Huebert suggested the oil and diesel deals may be a short-term effort to calm voters angry about fuel prices before the midterms. A proposed meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping has raised concerns about a new alliance structure. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said preparations have begun for a summit on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.

Popova warned that such a meeting could decide the fate of Canada or Taiwan. Rigby said this path would marginalize middle powers, a point Carney raised at Davos. Canada is responding by building new alliances and rearming. Rigby said the country must reach out to Europe to integrate defense industries and create independent satellite systems.

Geography limits Canada's options compared to Ukraine, which borders four EU countries. Most Americans, including many Republicans, do not support Trump's trade war with Canada. Rigby expects turbulent months ahead and said Canadians could see a president who is even more reckless, less restrained, and more aggressive.