Exit polls show Liberman's party gaining ground in Israeli election

Exit polls released on the evening of October 27 project that Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu will win seven or eight seats in the next Knesset. This result would increase the party’s representation from its current six seats in the 25th Knesset. The projections came after polls closed at 10 p.m. following a day of high morning turnout and afternoon rain.

The three major channels that published exit polls on Tuesday night provided slightly different numbers. Channel 12 and KAN both placed Yisrael Beytenu at eight seats. Channel 13 projected the party would win seven seats. The Central Election Committee denied a request by the Likud party to extend voting hours before the polls closed.

Liberman campaigned against the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He referred to the current administration as the government in charge during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. In a post on X, Liberman urged voters to support his party to remove that government. He also promised public transportation on Shabbat if voters elected his list.

Yisrael Beytenu has generally polled between seven and 10 seats since August 2026. The party has drawn support from diverse groups over the last decade and a half. It originally gained popularity with immigrants from former Soviet Union countries in the early 2000s. On October 20, Tzachi Hanegbi, a former National Security Council head and longtime Likud politician, announced he would vote for Liberman.

Liberman has taken several distinct positions in the final weeks of the campaign. In early October, a report indicated he suggested handing over Palestinian areas to Jordan. He criticized Netanyahu for fearmongering about Iran. He rejected forming a coalition that relies on Arab parties. He also warned that the United States might recognize a Palestinian state in coming years.

Reports in the afternoon on October 27 suggested high turnout among Arab voters could benefit Ra’am and the Joint List. This dynamic raised concerns that Yisrael Beytenu might struggle to cross the 3.25 percent threshold required to enter the Knesset. Liberman founded Yisrael Beytenu in 1999 after leaving Likud. He previously served as Minister of Defense from 2016 to 2018 and resigned over what he described as appeasement of Hamas.

The final seat distribution will depend on the official vote count. The October 27 results will shape coalition negotiations in the new government.